|
KMID : 0613620090290010143
|
|
Health Social Welfare Review
2009 Volume.29 No. 1 p.143 ~ p.162
|
|
|
Climate Change, Food-borne Disease Prediction, and Future Impact
|
|
Shin Ho-Sung
Choung Kee-Hye
Yoon Si-Mon
Lee Sue-Hyung
|
|
|
Abstract
|
|
|
There is enormous public interest in measuring the impacts of climate change. Food borne diseases may be one of the most significant contemporary public health problems. The purpose of this study was to estimate the prevalence of food borne diseases due to the climate change and to predict their future impact.
The analytical approach used generalized linear Poisson regression models adapted for timeseries data. To account for seasonal patterns of food-borne disease not directly due to weather factors, Fourier terms with annual periodicity were introduced into the model. To allow autocorrelation due to biological process of pathogen development and host reaction and the longterm trend, we considered time lags and year variable. The data we used was a panel data for the years between 2003 and 2007. The food-borne disease patients increased 5.27~5.99%(relative risk rate) per a Celsius degree.
Moreover, the weekly food-borne disease patients increased 6.18~7.01%(relative risk rate) per a Celsius degree. In the case of the weekly patients, the relative humidity was significant, so the weekly patient decreased 1.7% when the relative humidity increased 1%. Compared to reference year, 2003, there was no a certain trend in the food borne disease patients due to differences as per year and analysis methods. Climate change will not result in a uniform warming over the globe. With the oceanic and atmospheric circulations, large scale change will adjust smaller scale weather features including the frequency of extreme events, and in turn the prevalence of food-borne diseases. Diseas communication systems were the keys for curbing the spread of contamination and the outbreak of food-borne diseases.
|
|
|
KEYWORD
|
|
|
Climate Change, Food-borne Disease, Adaptation, Food Security
|
|
|
FullTexts / Linksout information
|
|
|
|
|
|
Listed journal information
|
|
|
|